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Polymarket Profits
Working Python bots for Polymarket. Kelly criterion sizing, copy trading, correlated markets, contrarian strategies, and on-chain resolution scanning.
2 playbooks · 11 free guides
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How to Build a Contrarian Bot for Polymarket
A Polymarket contrarian bot that uses base rates, engagement-weighted sentiment, and a political-market insider filter. With Python code and examples.
from: Polymarket Profits 2
Polymarket Position Sizing With Fee-Adjusted Kelly
Quarter-Kelly position sizing for Polymarket with the real fee formula, correlation clusters, and why a 68% win rate still loses money. With Python code.
from: Polymarket Profits 2
How to Build a Polymarket Resolution Scanner
A Polymarket resolution scanner that catches events before the price updates. Covers the 4 event types, 15-second staleness check, and edge calculation.
from: Polymarket Profits 2
Polymarket Trading Fees: The Real Formula and Table
The real Polymarket fee formula, taker rates per category from the official docs, and a worked example proving 5%+ effective fees kill most arbitrage bots.
from: Polymarket Profits 2
How to Detect Edge Decay in Your Trading Bot
Five metrics to detect edge decay in a Polymarket trading bot, plus the platform-change monitor that catches fee updates before they show up in your P&L.
from: Polymarket Profits 2
Kelly Criterion for Polymarket Position Sizing
The exact formula, the spreadsheet, and why half-Kelly beats full-Kelly in live prediction markets. Includes the $3,100 loss that proves it.
from: Polymarket Profits
How to Trade Correlated Markets on Polymarket
When one market moves, find the second market that should move but hasn't yet. The lag window strategy with entry rules, worked examples, and Python code.
from: Polymarket Profits
Polymarket Taxes and Legal Risks for US Traders
How Polymarket profits are taxed, whether US access via VPN is legal, and the 5 real risks nobody covers. From a trader who dealt with all of them.
from: Polymarket Profits
The 5-Minute Probability Test That Fixes Your Trading
Calibrate your prediction market instincts with 5 scenarios, expected value math, and a Python scoring system. Stop trading on gut feeling.
from: Polymarket Profits
Build a Reddit Sentiment Monitor for Trading in Python
Detect market-moving events 5 minutes before price moves. Working Python code for Reddit mention spike detection with alert system.
from: Polymarket Profits
